The following projects highlight some of our ongoing and
recent work. These projects do not include any confidential
work for insurers, reinsurers, intermediaries, or others.
1. FEMA National Wind Loss Estimation
Methodology
ARA was selected by the National Institute of Building Sciences and the
Federal Emergency Management Agency to develop the wind loss estimation module
in HAZUS in a competitive procurement in 1998 that involved over 10 organizations,
including many insurance catastrophe modeling firms. The initial release of the
HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model was completed in January 2004 and is now
available at http://www.fema.gov/hazus/.
HAZUS is a tool for emergency managers and other government officials for planning,
response, and mitigation analyses. While HAZUS does include extensive property loss
estimation and mitigation analysis capabilities, HAZUS does not model insurance
parameters such as deductibles and reinsurance. For more information,
please contact Dr. Frank Lavelle
or Dr. Peter Vickery.
Related News articles
April 2004- Completed
HAZUS-MH Hurricane Preview Model Demonstrated at the 2004 National
Hurricane Conference
May 2002- HAZUS-MH
Hurricane Preview Model Unveiled at National Hurricane Conference
April 2001-IntraRisk
Continues the Development of HAZUS 2002
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2. Hawaii Hurricane Relief Fund
In 1992, Hurricane Iniki caused over $1.6 billion of insured
property losses on the islands of Kauai and Oahu in Hawaii.
Soon after this event, the Hawaii Hurricane Relief Fund (HHRF)
was established within the State Department of Commerce and
Consumer Affairs to insure properties against hurricane damage.
Recently, the HHRF was tasked by the State to determine the
feasibility of using HHRF funds to establish a matching grant
program to assist homeowners who install windstorm mitigation
devices. ARA's IntraRisk group, along with our team of local
engineers and building contractors, was selected by the HHRF
to conduct the study. The final report, delivered in December
2001, included a detailed hurricane wind analysis for all
inhabited islands of Hawaii (including topographic speed-up
effects), estimates of mitigation costs and benefits, recommendations
on the size and duration of the grant program, and estimates
of the expected reductions in future losses. For more information,
please contact Dr.
Frank Lavelle or Dr.
Peter Vickery.
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3. Demonstration
Project for New Florida Building Code
House Bill 219 enacted by the 2000 Florida Legislature directed
the Department of Community Affairs to undertake a demonstration
and education project to demonstrate the true cost impact
on home building associated with implementation of the Florida
Building Code. The University of Florida was awarded a contract
to perform this work and subcontracted with ARA. The procedure
begins with the builders selecting a model that has been built
in the past and for which detailed cost records are available.
Plans and specifications for the model are submitted to the
Shimberg Center, reproduced, and sent to the Southern Building
Code Congress International (SBCCI) for plan review. The SBCCI
reviews the materials submitted by the builder and produces
a critical review of the proposed building's compliance with
the 1997 Standard Building Code and the Florida Building Code.
ARA helps develop photographic and cost records associated
with the special actions required by the Florida Building
Code. Upon completion of the building, ARA assembles all plans,
specifications, and cost records for the purpose of assessing
the cost differential between the 1997 Standard Building Code
and the Florida Building Code. ARA will develop a matrix of
code changes and analyze the cost differences. The main impacts
of the new code include wind-borne debris design options,
design wind speeds, load path connections, and topographic
speedups. ARA will also performs an assessment of the loss
reduction associated with the improved construction methods
and materials. Three houses will be analyzed this year. Please
contact Dr. Lawrence Twisdale
for more information on this project.
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4. Florida Coastal
Monitoring Project
ARA has recently completed its work for the Florida Coastal
Monitoring Project. We evaluated and retrofitted 10 homes
in the Florida Panhandle as part of this project with Clemson
University and the University of Florida. These homes have
been pre-wired for instrumentation with pressure sensors,
anemometer, and video data collection capability that can
be activated prior to landfall by a hurricane. In 1999, ARA
was involved in the initial project to determine the optimum
location and spacing of the homes in Florida for the coastal
monitoring program. Ten homes in Southeast Florida were retrofitted
at that time. Please contact Dr.
Lawrence Twisdale for more information on this project.
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5. IBHS Fortified Inspection
Program
The Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS) is a non-profit
organization that conducts research and education programs
on behalf of it's insurance company members. In an effort
to promote better house construction, they have developed
the Fortified construction program, which is a set of specifications
that are typically in excess of the local building codes.
This voluntary program is based on independent inspection
and certification to ensure that specifications that reduce
losses from natural disaster are used appropriately.
Builders who adopt the construction standards specified by
the Fortified Program are inspected and certified by IBHS
and can use the Fortified brand in their marketing material.
ARA has been instrumental in developing the training and educational
material for the inspectors who will be certifying Fortified
homes. IBHS, and its members are also developing marketing
and public education materials for the general public to create
a demand for higher standards of construction in the housing
market. The program currently covers the perils of Wind (Hurricane
and Tornado), Flood, Wild Fire, and Hail. The program is being
offered in a pilot program in Florida, but there are plans
to expand the program to the rest of the US in the next few
years. In addition, Earthquake and Freezing Temperature perils
will also be added to the program. For more information contact
Dr. Frank Lavelle
at our Raleigh office.
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6. FWUA Class Plan
FWUA selected ARA to perform the analyses for rating factors
for combinations of wind-resistive features. Other modeling
firms provided one-at-a-time estimates of loss cost reduction
for individual features such as shutters, hurricane straps,
etc. However, FWUA and their wind and actuarial committees
judged that ARA's model was the only one capable of analyzing
combinations of wind resistive factors that exist in actual
houses.
ARA developed the matrix of factors and ran model houses
with a matrix of features for five territories and two terrains.
Over one thousand computer runs were made to analyze the rating
factors for selected combinations of mitigation features,
territories, and terrains. Some of the main features considered
included roof deck attachment, roof-wall connection, window,
door, and garage door opening protection, secondary water
resistance, and roof shape. This study considered main features
only and the final relativities were established by the Actuarial
Committee.
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7. Hurricane Wind Risk
Studies
Using the HURSIM model, ARA has performed site specific hurricane
risk studies along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United
States, as well as all the Caribbean Islands, Guam, Hong Kong,
coastal cities in both China and Japan, as well as Korea and
Taiwan. These site specific risk studies, that yield estimates
of the predicted wind speeds and direction, are used with
the results of wind tunnel studies to develop design criteria
for buildings, bridges and towers. ARA provides hurricane
risk studies to two of the three major wind tunnel laboratories
in the United States, as well as for the commercial wind tunnel
operated by the Danish Maritime Institute and the wind tunnel
operated by British Maritime Technology, Inc., in the United
Kingdom. These site-specific wind studies are performed on
an as needed basis. RWDI Consulting Engineers are the largest
user of this service.
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8. Hurricane-Induced Coastal
Flooding
- Storm Surge
ARA developed a hurricane-induced storm surge model under
NSF funding in 1998. The storm surge model predicts still-water
flooding levels by solving the shallow water (two-dimensional)
flow equations using an explicit finite difference technique
that can operate on nested grids.
- Wave Action
Under NSF funding in 2000, ARA adopted WAVEWATCH-III to
include the effects of wave setup and runup in their coastal
flood modeling. WAVEWATCH-III is a third generation deep-water
wave model developed by NOAA.
- Risk-Consistent Wind/Flood Risk Modeling
ARA employs their state-of-the-art hurricane simulation
and wind field models, which have been adopted by ASCE-7
for their wind risk maps, to drive the flooding models when
performing risk assessments. This approach allows the unique
capability of modeling of the combined actions of flood
and wind to coastal structures in a risk-consistent manner.
- Health First Wind/Flood Risk Assessment
ARA conducted a flood/wind risk assessment for four Health
First facilities located on the Atlantic coast in Brevard
County, FL. A 20,000-year hurricane simulation was conducted
where the full time histories of flood level and wind velocity
were save for each storm that passed within 250 km of the
facilities. Wind speed and flood level data versus annual
probability were predicted for each of the four facilities.
Land inundation limits associated with return periods of
100, 300, 500 and 1000 years were also predicted for the
coastal regions of the facilities.
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9. ASCE 7-98 and 7-02 Hurricane
Map
ARA simulated 20,000 years of storms with its state-of-the-art
hurricane model (HURSIM) to update the ASCE 7 wind speed design
maps for the United States. The ASCE 7 document is a national
used by engineers to design new buildings in the United States,
and is referenced by the new International Building Code,
the International Residential Code, the new Florida Building
Code, as well as many other model codes. The analysis work
has been peer-reviewed by the ASCE 7 wind committee and is
published in the Journal of Structural Engineering. For more
information on this project and how the adoption of these
new standards may affect building performance and hurricane
losses, please contact Dr.
Peter Vickery.
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10. Florida Residential Construction
Mitigation Project
In December of 2000, ARA completed inspections and analyses
of several hundred homes in the Tampa Bay area as part of
Florida's Residential Construction Mitigation Project. Since
1998, ARA has analyzed over 2200 homes in Florida using an
individual building risk analysis methodology to determine
the best mitigation options, costs, and loss reduction benefits
for these homes. The individual building risk analysis methodology
involved detailed interior and exterior inspections, developing
a computer model of each house, and the simulation of 20,000
years of storms for that specific location. This unique analysis
and database has influenced the State over the past few years
to adopt a new building code and require insurance discounts
for wind mitigation features. For more information on this
massive undertaking or a sample of one of the mitigation reports,
please contact Dr. Frank Lavelle
or Dr.
Lawrence Twisdale.
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