In an effort to further protect lives and property from the effects of natural disasters, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and their partners at the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) are developing HAZUS-MH, an analysis tool for estimating damage and losses due to natural hazards. As part of this effort, FEMA and NIBS selected ARA's IntraRisk division to develop and implement a Hurricane Preview Model for release with HAZUS-MH in 2003.

With the methodology development nearing completion and the software development effort now well underway, a demonstration of the HAZUS Hurricane Preview Model was recently given by IntraRisk's Dr. Frank Lavelle on April 4 at the 2002 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, Florida. The case study selected for the demonstration showed the significant potential benefits of mitigation for residential structures in Monroe County, Florida. Expected loss reductions of over 70% were shown to be possible with a handful of existing mitigation technologies.

Over 40 attendees from the emergency management and response community attended the workshop session entitled "HAZUS Hurricane Preview Model - A Powerful New Tool for Mitigation." The session also included presentations on FEMA's HAZUS Wind Loss Estimation Tool from Mr. Edward Laatsch of FEMA, Dr. Joseph Minor of NIBS' wind engineering oversight committee, and Dr. Peter Vickery of ARA's IntraRisk Division.

The hurricane Preview Model is being developed for release in 2003 to communities in Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions. This initial version will allow assessment of hurricane winds and computation of basic estimates of potential damage to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. It will also allow estimation of direct economic losses. Development of the full model will continue after the release of the Preview Model, to add modeling capabilities such as storm surge, tree blowdown, lifelines, and other wind events such as extra-tropical cyclones, tornadoes, thunderstorms, and hail.

The hazard component of the HAZUS Hurricane Preview Model makes use of an existing state-of-the-art windfield model, which has been calibrated and validated using full-scale hurricane data. The model incorporates sea surface temperature in the boundary layer analysis, and calculates wind speed as a function of central pressure, translation speed, and surface roughness. The Hurricane Preview Model improves upon existing loss estimation models by using a hazard-load-damage-loss framework. The model addresses wind pressure, wind borne debris, surge and waves, atmospheric pressure change, duration/fatigue, and rain. Additional features include:

·A building classification system that depends on the key wind-related characteristics of the building,
·The capability to compute damages based on building classes and the effects of rain, progressive failure,
·The capability to compute damage to contents and building interior, and
·The capability to estimate economic losses, shelter requirements, tree blowdown, and structure debris quantities

Click here for more information about HAZUS.

Passing FCHLPM Standards

Winning HHRF Proposal

HAZUS Development

1st Americas Conference on Wind Engineering

HHRF Mitigation Study Findings

Passing FCHLPM 2001 Standards

Passing FCHLPM 2002 Standards

HAZUS-MH at 2004 National Hurricane Conference

Passing FCHLPM 2003 Standards

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